NRS have published the latest Population Projections for Scottish Areas. They are based on the latest mid-2016 population estimates and provide an indication of the future population size and age structure of Scottish areas based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.
The projections show that overall, the population of Scotland is projected to increase by 3% between 2016 and 2026. The majority of Scotland’s councils – 24 of the 32 councils – are projected to increase in population over the next decade. However, this means a quarter of Scotland’s councils – 8 councils – are projected to decline in population over the same period.
Of the council areas projected to experience a fall in population, Na h-Eileanan Siar (-5%), Inverclyde (-4%) and Argyll and Bute (-3%) are projected to have the largest decreases. The areas projected to decrease in population are concentrated in the west of Scotland. North, East and South Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and West Dunbartonshire are also projected to experience falls in population over the next ten years.
In September, NRS published life expectancy estimates which showed that a boy born in Scotland in 2014-2016 could expect to live until he was 77 years old and a girl could expect to live until she was 81 years old. Today NRS publish life expectancy in Scottish areas. These estimates show how life expectancy in different places within Scotland differs from the national figures.
We always report life expectancy separately for males and females, as women consistently outlive men. This is something which is seen not just in Scotland but all over the world in every country and population.
Between the 32 council areas in Scotland, life expectancy differs by as much as 7 years for men and 4.7 years for women. A baby boy who was born between 2014-2016 could expect to live until he was 80.3 years old if he was born in Orkney Islands. If however he was born in Glasgow City, he could only expect to reach 73.4 years old.
A baby girl on the other hand could expect to live for 83.5 years if she were born in East Renfrewshire or East Dunbartonshire, but if she were born in nearby West Dunbartonshire, she could expect to live for 78.8 years.
Enter your council area on this interactive visualisation to find out how life expectancy at birth compares to other council areas or to Scotland as a whole.
So why do we see such a difference in life expectancy across Scotland? One answer might lie in how urban or rural the area is that people live in. The Scottish Government’s ‘Urban-Rural 6 fold classification’ [*1] is a system that classifies small areas into six groups depending on the number of people living there and the distance from larger towns.
In the ‘Life Expectancy in Scottish Areas’ publication, NRS compare life expectancy for people who live in the different urban-rural areas. Both males and females live longer in more rural areas compared to more urban areas. There are many possible reasons for this, for example, air pollution is much lower in rural areas, meaning that people are less likely to develop diseases in their lungs and airways. It is also possible that people in the countryside have more active lifestyles, resulting in lower incidences of heart disease and obesity related diseases.
The ‘Life Expectancy in Scottish Areas’ publication also reports on how deprivation affects life expectancy. To do this, NRS statisticians use the Scottish Government’s ‘Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation’ [*2] (SIMD) which gives each small area across Scotland a rank depending on how they score on a series of deprivation measures (i.e. access to health care, employment, income and housing availability amongst others). NRS divides these small areas into five groups based on their SIMD score and calculates life expectancy for these groups (known as quintiles).
The statistics show that males living in quintile one (which represents the 20 per cent most deprived areas of Scotland) can expect to live for 10.5 years shorter than males who live in quintile five (the 20 per cent least deprived areas). For females, there is a difference of seven years between those living in quintile one and quintile five.
The difference in life expectancy between different SIMD quintiles is larger than the difference between council areas and much larger than the difference between urban and rural areas. This suggests that life expectancy in Scottish areas is more affected by deprivation than by location or rurality.
If you would like to know more about life expectancy in Scotland, please visit the NRS website. The publication ‘Life Expectancy for Areas within Scotland, 2014-2016’ includes life expectancy estimates for Council areas, Health boards and Scottish Parliamentary constituencies as well as estimates for areas by SIMD and Urban-Rural classification.
If you would like to know more about life expectancy for areas across the UK, please visit the ONS website. The ONS also produce estimates of healthy life expectancy and disability free life expectancy as part of their life expectancy publication.
National Records of Scotland
*1 For more information on the Urban-Rural classification system, please see the ‘Defining Scotland by Rurality’ section on the Scottish government website.
How many non-British nationals are living in Scotland, and how has that changed in the year since the EU Referendum?
Today, National Records of Scotland released updated population estimates by country of birth and nationality from the Annual Population Survey (APS). These statistics provide information on the number of people living in Scotland and allow us to understand the number of residents born abroad and those with a non-British nationality. The latest data relates to July 2016 to June 2017, so we can look at how Scotland’s population has changed since the EU Referendum in June 2016.
Over the period July 2015 to June 2016 (the year preceding the referendum), there were estimated to be 337,000 non-British nationals living in Scotland, accounting for 6.4% of the population. Between July 2016 and June 2017 (the year after the referendum), there were 355,000 non-British nationals living in Scotland, accounting for 6.7% of the population. This was not a statistically significant change.
Between the year ending June 2016 and the year ending June 2017, it is estimated that the number of EU nationals living in Scotland increased by 9.5% to 219,000. Over the same period, the number of non-EU nationals is estimated to have decreased by 0.7% to 135,000. Neither of these changes were statistically significant.
To put these numbers in context, between the year ending December 2015 and the year ending December 2016 the number of non-British nationals in Scotland increased by 14.2% from 295,000 to 337,000, with the EU and non-EU totals increasing by 28,000 and 15,000 respectively. All three of those changes were statistically significant increases. This shows that while the number of non-British nationals living in Scotland is still increasing, the rate of increase is slowing.
Of the 355,000 non-British nationals living in Scotland over the period July 2016 to June 2017, the most common nationality was Polish. It is estimated that there were 100,000 Polish nationals living in Scotland, accounting for 28% of the non-British population and 46% of the EU national population in Scotland. Polish was also the most common nationality in the year ending June 2016, when Polish nationals made up 25% of the non-British population and 43% of the EU national population of Scotland.
Things to note
This article considers international residents in Scotland based on their nationality, as stated by respondents when they were interviewed as part of the Annual Population Survey. It should be noted that a person’s nationality can change over time, for example people may come to Scotland as an overseas national and then later apply for British citizenship. Population estimates by country of birth (which cannot change) are also available on the NRS website.
Estimates of the non-UK born and non-British nationals population living in Scotland (often referred to as migrant stocks data) are not directly comparable with estimates of long-term international migration (migrant flows data). For statistics relating to migrant flows (the number of migrants moving to or from Scotland over a period of time) please visit the NRS migration tables.
The latest population projections show Scotland’s population is projected to continue to increase and to age over the next 25 years.
The National Population Projections for Scotland are based on the latest population estimates for 2016 and provide an indication of the future size and age structure of Scotland’s population based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.
The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.40 million in 2016 to 5.58 million in 2026, and to continue to rise to 5.69 million in 2041 – an increase of 5% over the 25 year period.
All of the projected increase in Scotland’s population over the next 10 years is due to net in-migration to Scotland; 58% of net in-migration is projected to come from overseas, with 42% from the rest of the UK.
Natural change (the number of births minus the number of deaths) is projected to be negative in each year of the projection. By 2041 it is projected that there will be over 10 thousand more deaths than births each year.
The population is also projected to age, with people aged 75 and over projected to be the fastest growing age group in Scotland. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 27% over the next ten years and increase by 79% over the next 25 years to 2041.
Between 2016 and 2041, the population of pensionable age is projected to rise from 1.05 million to 1.32 million, an increase of 25%, while the number of children is projected to decrease from 0.92 million to 0.90 million (reduction of 2%) over the same period. This compares to an increase in the working age population from 3.43 million in 2016 to a peak of 3.59 million in 2028 (an increase of 5%). It is then projected to decline to 3.47 million by 2041. Overall there is a 1% projected increase in people of working age over the 25 year period.
Population projections are used for a variety of purposes including resource allocation and planning of services such as education and health. They are also used for informing local and national policy, teacher workforce models and looking at the implications of an ageing population.
Each year since 1855, National Records of Scotland has published “Scotland’s Population”, providing an annual overview of the latest demographic trends. In this post, statistician Daniel Burns summarises the latest migration trends in Scotland.
Scotland’s population is at its highest recorded level of 5.4 million, growing by 5% over the past ten years. This increase has been driven by migration.
Before the turn of the century, Scotland was predominantly a country of net out-migration, with more people leaving to live elsewhere than moving to live in Scotland. A few years of net in-migration were first recorded in the early 1990’s. Since 2001, Scotland has been in a period of net in-migration with more people moving to live in Scotland than leaving. In the year to 30th June 2016, the number of people moving to Scotland exceeded the number leaving by around 31,700 (up 3,700 on the year previous). Continue reading “Annual Review – Population & Migration”→
Each year since 1855, National Records of Scotland has published the Registrar General’s Annual Review, providing an annual overview of the latest demographic trends.
NRS statistician Maria Kaye summarises what we know about life expectancy in Scotland, as found in “Scotland’s Population 2016” – the 162nd Annual Review.
The most recent life expectancy figures published by the National Records of Scotland tell us that a baby girl born in Scotland around 2014 could expect to live for 81.1 years while a baby boy could expect to live until he was 77.1 years old.
Over the past three decades, life expectancy has steadily improved – increasing by 8.0 years for males and by 5.8 years for females since around 1981. The gap between male and female life expectancy has also decreased over the period, from a gap of 6.2 years for those born around 1981 to a gap of 4.1 years for those born around 2014. Continue reading “Annual Review – Life Expectancy”→
Each year since 1855, National Records of Scotland has published the Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends, an overview of all the statistics we have gathered.
NRS statistician Amelia Brereton summarises our findings on Scotland’s households, as found in Scotland’s Population 2016 – the 162nd Annual Review.
Scotland’s population is growing and ageing. This has affected both the total number of households in Scotland and the most common types of household.
Older people are more likely to live on their own, or with just one other person. This means that as the number of older people in the population has gone up, so has the number of these smaller household types.
According to our latest estimates from the Scottish Household Survey, one-person households are now the most common type of household in Scotland. We estimate that nearly 900,000 people in Scotland are living alone, many of whom will be older people. Continue reading “Annual Review – Scotland’s Households”→
Tim Ellis, the Registrar General of Scotland, said:
“The population of Scotland is at its highest ever at 5.4 million. It has grown by 5% over the last 10 years. The majority of this growth has been due to migration as natural change (births minus deaths) has not contributed significantly to Scotland’s population growth.
“Most recently, 31,700 more people came to Scotland than left (net migration over the year to 30 June 2016) – made up of a net gain of 22,900 people from overseas and 8,800 people from the rest of the UK. The majority of migrants to Scotland are young, with 52% aged 18 to 32 years.
“Overall Scotland’s population has continued to age over the past decade, with the greatest increases in the population in the older age groups. Over the next 25 years, there is a projected increase of 28% in the number of pensioners in Scotland, compared to an increase of just 1% in the number of people of working age. This has implications for funding allocations, tax revenues, pensions, education, health and social care provision.”
The report is a compendium that brings together key demographic information from a range of publications produced by NRS. It has been produced every year since 1855. It covers population, births, deaths, life expectancy, migration, marriages and civil partnerships, adoptions, households and housing.
Every year, National Records of Scotland estimates how many households there are in Scotland, and how many people live in the average household. Households can be groups of people living together in homes, or single people living alone in a home.
Why is this important? Well, knowing how many households there are, and how many households there might be in future, is key for planning local services like waste collection and community care, and for planning for future housing needs.
The number of households in Scotland has been steadily rising over time, at a slightly faster rate than the population. According to our latest estimates, there are now 2.45 million households in Scotland. However, you may not know that the makeup of the typical household has also been changing.
In the past, larger households of three or more people were the most common type in Scotland. According to the census carried out in 1961, only 14% of households consisted of one person living alone. However, our latest estimates show that one person households are now the most common type. In fact, we estimate that nearly 900,000 people in Scotland are living alone. Continue reading “How are households in Scotland changing?”→
In January 2017, NRS adopted new software for recording mortality statistics. This software – IRIS – will help us to improve data relating to deaths from certain diseases and disorders. It will also help to create statistics that allow for more accurate comparison with other countries, particularly with England and Wales.
When a death is registered, it’s common for a number of diseases or conditions to be recorded on the death certificate. The IRIS software translates causes of death into a code that is recognised under the World Health Organisation’s International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision (ICD-10). Continue reading “Improving Mortality Statistics”→