A support package is now available on the NRS website to help you to generate your own sub-council area projections. This work was funded by NRS and delivered in partnership with Professor Ludi Simpson (Manchester University) and Dr Alan Marshall (Edinburgh University).
Why produce sub-council area projections?
NRS routinely produce population projections at Scotland and Council area level. It can also be useful to look at population changes at each age within a council for education, housing, social care and health planning.
The support package has been designed to allow you to create your own projections for specified areas within a council and are made to be consistent with the Sub-national Population Projections. You can specify your own assumptions and use local knowledge to create alternative scenarios.
What support is available?
A series of training videos have been designed to introduce demographic concepts and give step-by-step instructions on generating sub-council area projections in POPGROUP software.
Further information and access to the videos can be found here. Watch the video below for an introduction to this material.
These videos are accompanied by practical exercises so you can follow the videos and practice generating your own projections.
A detailed user guide for producing sub-council area projections in POPGROUP is also now available.
What is needed to produce projections?
These videos show how to produce population projections using POPGROUP software, an Excel-based system, which is the industry standard in Britain for demographic projections with Council Local Plans. Further information on how to purchase the software can be found on the Edge Analytics website.
A data entry tool is in development to help users to create POPGROUP input files using official statistics.
The Improvement Service, in collaboration with NRS, will produce a set of sub-council area population projections, using a standard geography specified by users in each council across Scotland.
If you would like to receive updates about population projections, including sub-council projections, please register your interest using ScotStat.
Interested in national and sub-national population projections?
The above support will allow you to produce your own sub-council population projections which are broadly consistent and can be compared with the Sub-National Population Projections (SNPP). You can access the SNPP produced by NRS, as well as the National Population Projections, on the NRS website.
Please contact us by email at firstname.lastname@example.org if you have any feedback about the sub-council area projection guidance.