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Population projections and depopulation across Scotland

NRS have published the latest Population Projections for Scottish Areas. They are based on the latest mid-2016 population estimates and provide an indication of the future population size and age structure of Scottish areas based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.

The projections show that overall, the population of Scotland is projected to increase by 3% between 2016 and 2026. The majority of Scotland’s councils – 24 of the 32 councils – are projected to increase in population over the next decade. However, this means a quarter of Scotland’s councils – 8 councils – are projected to decline in population over the same period.

Of the council areas projected to experience a fall in population, Na h-Eileanan Siar (-5%), Inverclyde (-4%) and Argyll and Bute (-3%) are projected to have the largest decreases. The areas projected to decrease in population are concentrated in the west of Scotland. North, East and South Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and West Dunbartonshire are also projected to experience falls in population over the next ten years.

Areas projected to decrease in population over the next 10 years are concentrated in the west of Scotland
Areas projected to experience population decrease

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Scotland’s Changing Population

National Records of Scotland (NRS) today publishes ‘Scotland’s Population 2016 – the Registrar General’s Annual Review of Demographic Trends’, alongside an infographic booklet which summarises the key trends in Scotland’s population.

Tim Ellis, the Registrar General of Scotland, said:

“The population of Scotland is at its highest ever at 5.4 million. It has grown by 5% over the last 10 years. The majority of this growth has been due to migration as natural change (births minus deaths) has not contributed significantly to Scotland’s population growth.

“Most recently, 31,700 more people came to Scotland than left (net migration over the year to 30 June 2016) – made up of a net gain of 22,900 people from overseas and 8,800 people from the rest of the UK. The majority of migrants to Scotland are young, with 52% aged 18 to 32 years.

“Overall Scotland’s population has continued to age over the past decade, with the greatest increases in the population in the older age groups. Over the next 25 years, there is a projected increase of 28% in the number of pensioners in Scotland, compared to an increase of just 1% in the number of people of working age. This has implications for funding allocations, tax revenues, pensions, education, health and social care provision.”

 

Scotland’s population is projected to age
Scotland’s population is projected to age

 The report is a compendium that brings together key demographic information from a range of publications produced by NRS. It has been produced every year since 1855. It covers population, births, deaths, life expectancy, migration, marriages and civil partnerships, adoptions, households and housing.

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How are households in Scotland changing?

Every year, National Records of Scotland estimates how many households there are in Scotland, and how many people live in the average household. Households can be groups of people living together in homes, or single people living alone in a home.

Why is this important? Well, knowing how many households there are, and how many households there might be in future, is key for planning local services like waste collection and community care, and for planning for future housing needs.

The number of households in Scotland has been steadily rising over time, at a slightly faster rate than the population. According to our latest estimates, there are now 2.45 million households in Scotland. However, you may not know that the makeup of the typical household has also been changing.

households 1

In the past, larger households of three or more people were the most common type in Scotland. According to the census carried out in 1961, only 14% of households consisted of one person living alone. However, our latest estimates show that one person households are now the most common type. In fact, we estimate that nearly 900,000 people in Scotland are living alone. Continue reading “How are households in Scotland changing?” →

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Estimating the number of homes in Scotland

Every year we estimate how many homes there are in Scotland, and also how many of those homes are either empty, or second homes. Our estimates are then used for planning things like housing and local services.

Our latest estimates suggest there are now 2.58 million homes in Scotland. For every hundred homes in Scotland, we estimate that 96 are occupied all year, one is a second home occupied for only part of the year, and three are empty homes which are not being occupied at all. Empty and second homes are more common in some parts of the country than others. For example, remote rural areas have a higher proportion of both second homes and empty homes than urban areas.

Number of occupied dwellings, empty homes and second homes in Scotland

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Scotland’s population is increasing

We’ve published figures today on Scotland’s increasing population. Over the last 20 years, the number of people living in Scotland has increased by 312,000 (6%).

The latest estimate of the population is 5,404,700 at 30 June 2016, the highest level recorded. This was an increase of 31,700 (0.6%) people since the previous year.

Scotland's population has gone from 5092,190 in 1996 to 5,404,700 in 2016.
Infographic showing increase in Scotland’s population from 1996-2016.

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Changing lives with data

Data can change lives! Huge amounts of data are made freely available by government and other organisations across Scotland, including NRS. Lots of people use this data in all sorts of ways, but there are plenty of people who don’t, just because they don’t know what is available. To try to help people get started, we ran a free event as part of the recent Data Festival, called ‘Changing lives with data’.

Datafest - Amy Wilson speaking
Our Head of Statistics Amy Wilson speaking at Datafest. Thanks to Dave Fitch (@dere_street) for the picture.

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