Population projections and depopulation across Scotland

NRS have published the latest Population Projections for Scottish Areas. They are based on the latest mid-2016 population estimates and provide an indication of the future population size and age structure of Scottish areas based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.

The projections show that overall, the population of Scotland is projected to increase by 3% between 2016 and 2026. The majority of Scotland’s councils – 24 of the 32 councils – are projected to increase in population over the next decade. However, this means a quarter of Scotland’s councils – 8 councils – are projected to decline in population over the same period.

Of the council areas projected to experience a fall in population, Na h-Eileanan Siar (-5%), Inverclyde (-4%) and Argyll and Bute (-3%) are projected to have the largest decreases. The areas projected to decrease in population are concentrated in the west of Scotland. North, East and South Ayrshire, Dumfries and Galloway and West Dunbartonshire are also projected to experience falls in population over the next ten years.

Areas projected to decrease in population over the next 10 years are concentrated in the west of Scotland
Areas projected to experience population decrease

Continue reading “Population projections and depopulation across Scotland”

Criminal case papers brought to life by University students

This Saturday, 3rd February, legal students from the Universities of Aberdeen and Dundee will be delving almost 130 years into the past and, using High Court and Crown Office archive records held by the NRS, will stage a mock trial of a notorious Dundee crime which resulted in the city’s last ever execution.

William_Henry_Bury (public domain - Dundee Courier, 12 Feb 1889)
William Bury (Dundee Courier, 12 Feb 1889)

William Bury was accused of the brutal murder of his wife, Ellen, and the trial was heavily reliant on the medical evidence presented by both prosecution and defence. This evidence, which is preserved in the trial papers, resulted in the jury returning a somewhat reluctant and controversial guilty verdict.


One important point of distinction centred around whether Ellen had taken her own life and her husband had concealed the body out of fear of being accused of the act, or whether William Bury had strangled Ellen and then concealed the body. The medical evidence was presented with markedly different interpretations by the doctors who examined the body.  Two of them determined that Ellen had been murdered.  However, a third doctor claimed, in a 14-page report, that the evidence pointed to Ellen having taken her own life.

As well as being the last man hanged in Dundee, Bury has the dubious notoriety of also

NRS Precognition and Trial Records: JC26/1889/15/4, JC26/1889/15/10, and AD14/89/160/1

being a suspect in the ‘Jack the Ripper’ murders, although the murder of his wife was the only conviction brought against him.


Professor Dame Sue Black, Director of the Centre for Anatomy and Human Identification at the University of Dundee, said that the event would have been impossible to stage without the records preserved here in the archives.   These records, along with contemporary newspaper reports, will allow students from Aberdeen University (for the defence) to re-examine the medical evidence, and seek to persuade a new jury that today’s forensic science standards may justify a different verdict.

The event will be held at Dundee Sheriff Court and will be live-streamed on Dan Snow’s HistoryHit TV online History Channel. Live tweets will also keep interested members of the public up to date on the trial as it progresses.  It will be fascinating to see whether 130 year old medical evidence will still ‘stand up in court’ after all this time.

The mock trial is being staged as part of the celebrations to mark the 130th anniversary of the establishment of the Cox Chair of Anatomy at the University of Dundee and more details about the event can be found on their website.


Kirsteen Mulhern, Archivist

Feline Christmassy?

NRS' Christmas Card - cavorting cats
NRS’s Christmas e-card this year.

This year’s Christmas e-card from National Records of Scotland features one of the more light-hearted items from our Register House Plans series – a ballroom filled with cats enjoying a Christmas party, dancing, gossiping and having fun. We think that this could be the item containing the most cats in the NRS collections!

Christmsa print from our archives showing cats at a dance
Meowy Christmas from the Cats’ Christmas Dance

In creating the Christmas card, we have selected three details out of the huge scene of cavorting cats. But look closely at the whole image – there is a lot of frivolity to enjoy. A band sits in the corner creating the evening’s entertainment beside a grand Christmas tree; beautiful felines stand fanning themselves by the wall, waiting to be asked to dance and gentle-cats catch up on world events. In the centre of the floor couples struggle to dance whilst getting knocked off balance by over-excited kittens racing to the stage, and a harassed waiter carrying hors d’oeuvres is pounced upon by kittens trying to reach his tasty mice snacks. Elsewhere, little kittens play with their Christmas toys whilst young couples flirt behind the secrecy of the foliage. The scene is filled with happy conversation, joy and excitement at the holiday season and we are sure that many humans will also partake in the same festivities this Christmas!

This illustration comes from the workshop of Joseph Swain (29 February 1820 – 25 February 1909), and was published in the second supplement to the ‘Illustrated Sporting and Dramatic News, Christmas Number’ 6 December 1890.’ Swain was one of the most prolific English wood-engravers of the 19th century. He is best known from his engravings in ‘Punch’ magazine of cartoons by Sir John Tenniel, the English illustrator, graphic humourist and political cartoonist, perhaps best known for his wonderful drawings of the Cheshire Cat, Alice in Wonderland and Lewis Carroll’s other characters.

Born in Oxford, Swain moved to London when he was nine and apprenticed to the eminent engraver Thomas Williams. He set up his own successful business in 1842. Swain’s skill was much admired and he subsequently became the head of the engraving department at ‘Punch’, where he worked until 1900, and also created items for ‘Illustrated London News’, ‘Good Words’ and ‘Cornhill Magazine’. Due to his large success, he employed a number of assistants. This is reflected in the signature at the bottom right of the image ‘SWAIN Sc.’ which stands for ‘sculpsit’ (Swain engraved this). It denotes that the work itself was from his office, rather than being a personal creation.

Despite undertaking work of many types of variety and different artistic style, he did not become associated with any in particular. The largest collections of his original engravings are in the British Museum and in the Hartley Collection, Boston Museum.

National Records of Scotland bought this unusual image as part of a larger lot at auction in August 2011, alongside other items. It is referenced RHP142876.

Aiming for quality: selection, capture, QA and preservation of the NRS Web Archive

This week we dig into the procedures that power the NRS Web Continuity Service. We are a multi-faceted service, dealing with numerous stakeholders and subject areas. With that in mind, we need to ensure our processes are efficient and effective, to help us deliver a high quality web archive.

But what do we mean by ‘high quality web archive’? In web archiving, quality can be related to three elements:

  • Completeness – how much of captured website’s links, text, downloads etc. the crawler has been able to access and capture
  • Behaviour – how much of the navigational functionalities within the captured website snapshot have been preserved, compared to the live site
  • Appearance – how much the design, ‘look and feel’ and user experience of the website has been captured and preserved. We find the quality assurance principles articulated by the NYARC consortium very helpful for this, see https://sites.google.com/site/nyarc3/web-archiving/quality-assurance/introduction

But web archiving is technically complicated. Therefore, ‘quality’ can only feasibly be delivered through refined, consistent processes. Continue reading “Aiming for quality: selection, capture, QA and preservation of the NRS Web Archive”

The NRS Web Archive and the NRS Web Continuity Service

So far in this blog series we have discovered government websites’ value as public records, and explored the world of web archiving. This week we combine these two threads, to introduce the NRS Web Archive and our Web Continuity Service.

The NRS Web Continuity Service went live in February 2017. Delivered as part of NRS’s Digital Preservation Programme, our service allows us to archive selected websites that fall within our statutory and strategic collecting remit, and make all archived snapshots accessible in the NRS Web Archive. After just a few months of operations, we are delighted to say that the service is fully functioning and delivering on what it set out to do. To find out more, keep on reading!

As a national archive, NRS collects the archival records of the Scottish Government, Scottish Courts, and the Scottish Parliament. We also collect the records of many public authorities, Public Inquiries in Scotland, and a selection of private organisations: full details here. This collecting remit extends to websites – which is where the Web Continuity Service comes in.

manuscript acts of the scottish parliament

scot parl website
One record creator, two formats, one archive: manuscript Acts of the (Scottish) Parliament, 1542, snapshot of the Scottish Parliament, 2017. Both records are preserved and made available by NRS, documenting two particular points in the history of democracy in Scotland.

As we found out last week, web archiving is technically tough. To manage this, we procured the services of a commercial supplier, Internet Memory Research, to deliver the technical elements of our service. This allows us to focus our in-house efforts on stakeholder engagement, appraisal and selection, quality assurance, and service advocacy. See our Service Model document for more details. We’ll talk more about our processes in our next blog.

Our Web Archive operates on a permissions’ basis, whereby we ask website owners to provide us with information ahead of capture to enhance our collection knowledge and permit us to manage access to archived content appropriately. We only archive content in the public domain, but it’s still important to get owners’ insight on any potential copyright or other sensitivities, as well as talk through the benefits of the service for them e.g. support recordkeeping, assist web teams in managing historic content etc.

This permissions’ process has been effective in helping website owners get to grips with the concept of the web archive. Furthermore, it has helped forge closer links between NRS and parts of our stakeholder organisations with whom we’d perhaps not spoken to before e.g. IT teams, web teams, communications. These new connections may prove invaluable to future discussions on transfer of other born digital records.

We capture selected sites every month, giving us flexibility to schedule crawls in line with owners’ requests and to help capture as much unique content as possible e.g. before or after a significant event, during business/website change etc. Each site is normally captured between one and two times a year, creating a representative record of its existence and development.

Our service also has one special trick up its sleeve: Web Continuity, designed to help combat ‘link rot’ on government sites. ‘Link rot’ refers to instances where online information located on a specific web URL is taken down or moved, meaning that if a user navigates to this link, they are likely to receive a ‘404 page not found message’.

Link rot can have an impact on government transparency and openness – for instance leading to scrutiny on why content was removed – and is still a significant threat to modern jurisdictions. For example, 83% of .pdfs were previously hosted on US Government .gov domains disappeared between 2008 and 2012, and a recent revamp of the US Supreme Court was tailored to combat such an issue.

To help our stakeholders manage this risk, we provide them with a free opportunity to connect their live website with the NRS Web Archive via Web Continuity redirection. With this in place, when a user navigates to a broken link within the owner’s live site, rather than receive a ‘404’ error message, they will be redirected into the web archive and an automatic search for an archived version of the information will be made and served back with associated branding. This will mean that users will see many fewer broken links and help preserve the online chain of official information. One of our service’s key objectives is to support Scottish Government’s dedication to openness, citizen participation and transparency, and we intend to measure its impact over time.

404 error message on The White House website. Changes in government often lead to government webpages going offline. Web Continuity helps to preserve access to government online information in Scotland, even when it’s taken offline. Taken from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:White_House.gov_404_error_1-20-09.JPG
404 error message on The White House website. Changes in government often lead to government webpages going offline. Web Continuity helps to preserve access to government online information in Scotland, even when it’s taken offline. Taken from https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:White_House.gov_404_error_1-20-09.JPG



What is web archiving? History, technology, collections

Following on from last week’s introductory blog on web archiving this post takes a broader look at the technical and collecting environment of web archiving, as well as a brief look at its history.

The World Wide Web was pioneered in the late 1980s to help share information more efficiently and effectively. Needless to say this new system proved to be a hit, leading to its global rollout in the early 1990s.  It didn’t take long for observers to ponder that there was probably a lot of content on the Web that would be worth saving for posterity (particularly due to its vulnerability to change), but how?

View of the first website, available at http://info.cern.ch/hypertext/WWW/TheProject.html
View of the first website, available at http://info.cern.ch/hypertext/WWW/TheProject.html

Today, online content is perhaps even more susceptible to change and loss, as a typical webpage has an average ‘lifespan’ of 44 to 75 days. Without action to capture content before it changes, we may end up with large gaps in history as recorded by the Web, which some researchers are already beginning to battle with. If we want to understand how our modern society ticks, we need a way to grab and save as much of this content as possible. To do this, we need web archives.

But what exactly do we mean by ‘web archiving’?

Web archiving can be defined as the process of capturing content that has been made available via the World Wide Web, preserving this content in a web archive, and making this accessible to users.

The most scalable way to do web archiving is with web crawler software. Crawlers are instructed to visit a selected website, or ‘seed’, on a certain date, and to explore this seed via its hyperlinks, copying content as it goes. The copied content is termed a ‘snapshot’. Each snapshot is often quality assured, and then preserved within ISO 28500:2009 WARC (Web ARChive) files. The WARC file constitutes an archival record of the snapshot captured at that point in time, and has the major advantage of enabling archivists to package together multiple related files from a website snapshot and preserve these long-term as individual entities.

To ensure users are aware they are viewing archived content (and not a live site), archived content is clearly identified via a banner and rewritten URL.

View of the Audit Scotland websites, as captured by NRS on 6th June 2017. Note the page banner and rewritten URL to show users they are in the web archive.
View of the Audit Scotland websites, as captured by NRS on 6th June 2017. Note the page banner and rewritten URL to show users they are in the web archive.

The Internet Archive and the National Library of Australia were the first organisations to archive web content in 1996, and the web archiving sector now reaches across the globe.

The Internet Archive, based in a former Christian Science Church, San Francisco. Taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Archive#/media/File:Christian_science_church122908_02.jpg
The Internet Archive, based in a former Christian Science Church, San Francisco. Taken from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_Archive#/media/File:Christian_science_church122908_02.jpg

As well as a core preservation argument, many libraries recognise the merit of archiving websites as part of their drive to record our cultural memory, whilst many archives also recognise official government websites as part and parcel of a nation’s public record.

This collecting pattern is illustrated in the UK:

Web archiving does have its fair share of technical challenges. For instance, dynamically driven content e.g. webpages generated by a user search, Javascript, drop-down menus, and streamed media such as embedded YouTube videos are notoriously challenging to capture with a crawler.

This situation leads many web archives to devote effort to quality assuring content once it has been captured, and assessing whether any remedial actions may be possible. Crawling technology continues to be improved, often as part of international collaborations.

Given these challenges, it’s sobering to recognise that the perfect web archive, full of content that is complete and fully operational, simply does not exist. However, web archives remain pragmatic in the face of this, constantly re-evaluating methods, processes and strategies, never losing sight of their core goal: to preserve a representative, high-fidelity record of the Web.

In our next blog, we will explore how the NRS Web Continuity Service fits into all of this, what web continuity is, and how our work actively supports the Scottish Government’s commitment to openness and accountability.

Surfing the Web…Archive!

Web archives can be a ‘looking glass’ into government (image from https://pixabay.com/en/looking-glass-binoculars-magnifying-653449/ )

Welcome to our blog! Over the course of few weeks, we will take Open Book readers on a tour of NRS’s new Web Continuity Service. Web archiving and Web Continuity represent an exciting new era for archiving at NRS, providing a digital tool that directly supports our mission to,

“collect, preserve and produce information about Scotland’s people and history, and make it available to inform present and future generations.”

Stay tuned for bite-sized articles on how this new service operates, and how it will contribute to the development of Scotland’s national archive collection and support the Scottish Government’s transparency agenda.

Websites as archival public records and the ‘looking glass’ into government

Nowadays, when a member of the public wants to understand something about government, the first source they will likely check is an official government website (probably found via Google).

In this multi-channel era, government websites have a critical role to disseminate official, trusted information, so that the government remains accountable and transparent to the citizen.

Government websites contain evidence of the democratic process, provide context and content on official decision making and spending, and function as the dynamic interface between the state and the citizen.

As a result, government websites form an integral part of the public record. National archives, who capture, preserve and make available public records, are therefore taking steps to capture a representative record of this modern aspect of government. To do so, national archives are creating web archives. Web archives have been around for some time. Nevertheless, the process of web archiving is technically challenging: more on that in our next blog post.

If done well, web archiving has the potential to dramatically alter the way we record, preserve, and analyse the activities of our government and wider society.

Selecting and capturing government websites, evidencing how these change over time, and making the output of this archiving process clear, reusable and interoperable, can create a powerful ‘looking glass’ into modern official business. It can also do this in a scalable and consistent manner.

Furthermore, emerging research is indicating that web archives may form the single most important contextual record for understanding society in the last twenty years, and will continue to do so. Here’s some examples to ponder:

Screenshot of the Edinburgh Tram Enquiry website as shown on our web archive, with banners and URL aking it clear it is an archived site.
The Edinburgh Tram Enquiry website as shown on our web archive – with banners and URL making it clear it is an archived site. http://webarchive.nrscotland.gov.uk/20170401010904/http://www.edinburghtraminquiry.org/

Observant readers will quickly notice some unusual features about these archived pages; they all have arresting headers to show the user the page is archived and when this occurred, and some of the original dynamic functionality such as search, unfortunately  may not work.

What is key though is that these archives have attempted to capture information from these websites as completely and accurately as possible.

In the next blog, we will explore the core technology behind web archiving, its technical challenges, and how archives (and NRS) are responding to this new era of collecting.

Digital Preservation for Local Authorities

For many archivists embarking on a Digital Preservation programme, the biggest challenge is knowing where to start. NRS has been helping local authority archivists to overcome this initial hurdle with two new tools to help archivists get started with digital preservation.

Last summer, two Heritage Lottery-funded Skills for the Future trainees, seconded on year-long placements, joined our the Digital Records Unit to help local authority archivists get started with digital preservation. A year later, they have developed two tools which will enable archivists to take their first steps in digital preservation. These are the ‘Digital Preservation Guidance for Local Authorities’ and the ‘Capacity Planning Tool – Counting The Bits’.

The Digital Preservation Guidance for Local Authorities is written guidance tailored for local authority archivists and other staff who will be responsible for digital preservation. This may include records managers, information managers and IT staff. The guidance is written in simple, non-technical language so that the audience can be as wide as possible. The aim is to give anyone working directly or indirectly with digital preservation a clear idea of what it means and what is involved, to facilitate the start of the process.

The Capacity Planning Tool helps local authority archivists to calculate what their digital storage needs are. It does this by helping them to estimate how many digital records currently sit within their organisation, and helping them to estimate what percentage of records they need to preserve in the long term. Although this might sound like a simple task, it can be surprisingly difficult for archivists to make these calculations on their own. It is not uncommon for archivists to have no relationship with the digital records being created within their organisation. Even finding out where digital records are kept can be a challenge!

The Tool works by asking archivists complete a simple series of questions about records currently held within the organisation. It allows the archivist to identify and prioritise the departments that are most important to them. It also provides guidance about how to go about sourcing the necessary information. Once this information has been input, the tool makes some calculations based on factors such as estimated percentage of total records to be captured in the digital strategy; number of records that sit on the live system; and number of records that will be created to sit within the repository. These calculations equip users with tangible figures that can be used to initiate a conversation about resourcing needs. The results are shown as easy to use graphs and tables, which archivists can use to demonstrate their capacity requirements in an easy to understand format.

Like many projects that appear complex at the outset, the key to a successful digital preservation strategy is to break down the process into its constituent parts. Together the Capacity Planning Tool and the Guidance act as a foundation upon which a successful strategy can be built.

You can find the tools at the bottom of this page: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/record-keeping/public-records-scotland-act-2011/resources.

Scotland’s population is projected to increase and age

The latest population projections show Scotland’s population is projected to continue to increase and to age over the next 25 years.

The National Population Projections for Scotland are based on the latest population estimates for 2016 and provide an indication of the future size and age structure of Scotland’s population based on a set of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration.

The population of Scotland is projected to rise from 5.40 million in 2016 to 5.58 million in 2026, and to continue to rise to 5.69 million in 2041 – an increase of 5% over the 25 year period.

The population of Scotland is projected to increase

All of the projected increase in Scotland’s population over the next 10 years is due to net in-migration to Scotland; 58% of net in-migration is projected to come from overseas, with 42% from the rest of the UK.

Natural change (the number of births minus the number of deaths) is projected to be negative in each year of the projection. By 2041 it is projected that there will be over 10 thousand more deaths than births each year.

All of Scotland's projected population increase over the next 25 years is due to net migration

The population is also projected to age, with people aged 75 and over projected to be the fastest growing age group in Scotland. The number of people aged 75 and over is projected to increase by 27% over the next ten years and increase by 79% over the next 25 years to 2041.

Scotland's population is expected to age

Between 2016 and 2041, the population of pensionable age is projected to rise from 1.05 million to 1.32 million, an increase of 25%, while the number of children is projected to decrease from 0.92 million to 0.90 million (reduction of 2%) over the same period. This compares to an increase in the working age population from 3.43 million in 2016 to a peak of 3.59 million in 2028 (an increase of 5%). It is then projected to decline to 3.47 million by 2041. Overall there is a 1% projected increase in people of working age over the 25 year period.

Scotland's pensionable age population is projected to increase by 25% from 2016 to 2041.

Population projections are used for a variety of purposes including resource allocation and planning of services such as education and health. They are also used for informing local and national policy, teacher workforce models and looking at the implications of an ageing population.

If you would like to find out more, the full publication, key findings and interactive data visualisation for the 2016-based National Population Projections for Scotland are available on our website.

William Howes, Assistant Statistician

The end of summer weeding

At the beginning of September, we said a fond farewell to our five summer legal students, who are employed each year to assist us with processing the vast amount of Sheriff Court civil records that we take in each year.

Archivists aim to visit 5-6 courts every year and bring back records that are over 25 years old. We keep a record of every case that goes through the courts, but the sheer bulk of the papers concerned means that we have to make informed decisions about what we can dispose of from amongst the huge amount of papers that go along with every court case.

Our 2017 team of Sheriff Court Record ‘weeders’

This is where our legal student team come into play. They are usually drawn from the ranks of 3rd or 4th year students from one of the Scottish Legal degree courses, and they spend twelve weeks sifting through and ‘weeding’ the civil court papers to allow us to dispose of papers with no enduring historical interest, or evidential  value.

In practical terms, this means that we are able to retain the pertinent information about every case (the people involved, the case details, the judgements, etc.) but that we are not overburdened by keeping case papers which are simply multiple examples of similar types of cases (e.g. simple payment cases).

disposing of weeded material
The students disposing of ‘weeded’ material

This year, the students helped us to process over 400 meters of records from Edinburgh, Elgin, Falkirk, Haddington, Hamilton, and Peebles Sheriff Courts.

We anticipate that, by the time we finish cataloguing these records, the ‘weeders’ will have helped us to reduce this down to around half of the original amount – saving us a huge amount of space, and allowing us to efficiently preserve and catalogue the records which will help to inform future generations.

We wish our summer students all the best success with their future endeavours, and send our thanks for their help.